China’s top diplomat Wang Yi has had a busy week in which two devastating conflicts have loomed large.
Wang started by gathering 14 Palestinian factions for reconciliation talks in Beijing, including bitter rivals Hamas and Fatah, before meeting on Wednesday with Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba – the first time China has hosted a top Ukrainian official since Russia’s invasion nearly two and half years ago.
The juxtaposed diplomacy – where talks were closely linked to the grinding wars in Gaza and Ukraine, respectively – came as Beijing vies to present itself as a geopolitical heavyweight in a world increasingly divided by both conflicts.
In a meeting with Kuleba, Wang said Beijing “supported all efforts that contribute to peace” – marking China’s latest effort to position itself as a “neutral” peace broker in the conflict, even as it has ratcheted up ties with Russia.
And at the conclusion of talks between the Palestinian factions a day earlier, the foreign minister hailed the signing of a declaration on “ending division.” The agreement, viewed with a measure of skepticism in the Middle East where such deals have quickly collapsed before, was a “historical moment in the Palestinian liberation cause,” Wang said.
For the Chinese government, experts say, Wang’s week of diplomacy offered a chance to play up desired optics: framing the country as a productive player in intractable conflicts – and an alternative broker to the United States.
China’s ambition is to be “recognized and accepted as a – if not the – global leader, and it seeks to do so by enlisting the support of the Global South, which is more numerous in both population and country terms than the democratic West,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London.
But it also signals some of the limits within which Beijing is operating, experts suggest, as it seeks to build a solution in Gaza without having deep influence in the region and calls for peace in Ukraine while keeping tight ties with Russia.
Kuleba’s visit was the first time in the nearly 29 months of Russia’s war on Ukraine that a high-level Ukrainian official has visited China. In contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited twice and Kremlin officials have made numerous trips during the same period.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other European leaders have previously expressed hope that China could use its close relationship with Russia to push for peace on terms acceptable to Kyiv, which unequivocally calls for the withdrawal of Russian troops and a return to its internationally recognized borders. But Chinese officials have given no public indication of doing so and have instead pushed for any peace efforts to consider “all countries’” security concerns.
Kuleba’s visit comes as Beijing is under increasing pressure from the West over its ties to Russia and allegations it’s aiding Moscow’s war effort by providing dual-use goods. Beijing denies this and says the West is fueling the conflict by supplying arms for Ukraine’s defense.
Western rhetoric is also hardening. NATO leaders earlier this month said Beijing was “decisively” enabling Russia’s war by support for its defense industrial base, and Zelensky last month accused China of prolonging – through its “support to Russia” – the war devastating his country.
That may be a topic of conversation later this week when Wang is expected to speak with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in another engagement during a regional meeting in Laos.
‘Not yet ready’
Kuleba arrived in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou on Tuesday saying that there would be “extensive, detailed, substantive” negotiations focused on “one issue – peace in Ukraine.”
“We will talk, we will be looking for common ground. We need to avoid competition between peace plans,” he said in a social media video post, in an apparent reference to the vast distance between Beijing’s proposed “political settlement” for the war and Ukraine’s own peace formula.
Official statements from Beijing and Kyiv after Wednesday’s Wang-Kuleba talks gave no indication that the Ukrainian diplomat had swayed Beijing toward Kyiv’s vision for peace.
Instead, Wang re-emphasized Beijing’s past statements and its call for a “political settlement.” China last year released its view on such a settlement, which backs a ceasefire without stipulating the prior withdrawal of Russian troops, a position criticized as favorable to Moscow’s illegal territorial gains. Neither side mentioned the provision of material or economic support to Russia in official statements.
Wang did appear to leave a door open for Ukraine to rely on China as a broker, saying, according to Beijing’s Foreign Ministry, that “although the conditions and timing are not yet ready,” China was “willing to continue to play a constructive role in ceasefire and resumption of peace talks.”
Kuleba, for his part, reiterated the country’s position of being ready for peace talks “when Russia is ready to negotiate in good faith,” according to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, but highlighted that Kyiv sees no such readiness from Moscow.
Observers say Beijing could, at some point, play a role in any potential future talks, but is unlikely to shift its relationship with Russia.
Xi is widely seen to view China’s northern neighbor as a critical partner in pushing back against a world order he sees as unfairly dominated by the West – and does not want Russia to suffer a damaging defeat.
Chinese leaders may have decided to meet Kuleba now to show they’re trying to “push for peace” amid Western criticism of Beijing’s Russia ties and because of the impending election in the United States, according to Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore.
Kyiv is casting a wary eye on those elections that could see a plunge in American support for Ukraine’s defense if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins. Trump’s running mate JD Vance has openly advocated for ending military aid to Ukraine in favor of bolstering Taiwan’s defenses.
“Perhaps Beijing is reading this and feels that they are in a better position to push Kyiv towards a compromise that Moscow might find more amenable,” Chong said.
China’s state-linked news outlet Global Times also highlighted expert commentary suggesting Ukraine may realize that “efforts to completely isolate” Russia internationally have failed, as players like India and Brazil – both key Global South nations – have not supported a communique following a Ukraine-backed peace summit in June, which did not include Russia. Beijing has said such conferences should include both Kyiv and Moscow.
‘Reconciliation’ deal
Beijing’s efforts to be a platform for Palestinian reconciliation, meanwhile, come as it has presented itself as a leader for voices across the Global South in calling for Palestinian statehood and decrying Israel’s war and its staggering humanitarian cost, while criticizing US backing of Israel.
Wang said that Tuesday’s reconciliation talks between Palestinian factions ended with an agreement “on post-Gaza war governance and the establishment of a provisional national reconciliation government.”
The announcement comes as the future governance of Palestinian territories remains in question following Israel’s repeated vow to eradicate Hamas – and a growing push for Palestinian statehood. But it was met with some skepticism from observers in the region given the failure of past attempts at unity.
A US State Department spokesperson questioned whether the deal would “in any way have an impact on the ongoing discussions to reach a ceasefire” in the war in Gaza, adding it ran counter to Washington’s position, which is that militant group Hamas should not have a role in the governance of “a unified Gaza and the West Bank” after the war.
Within the region, there is also a sense that some of Beijing’s broader diplomacy around the conflict may be “missing out on the intricacies” of different viewpoints there, while seeking to win backing for its own international agenda, according to Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow for the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs.
“Of course there’s frustration with the West and in particular with the US, but at the same time nobody’s looking at China and saying, ‘well, this is the country that’s going to come and solve it,’ because they see it as very self-interested actor with a pretty shallow level of regional knowledge and expertise,” he said.
