A peace agreement brokered by the White House to stem the bloodshed in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where a militia allegedly backed by Rwanda occupies vast swaths of land, will be signed in Washington D.C. on Friday by officials of the two African nations.

But many remain unconvinced that the accord – portrayed as a “wonderful treaty” by United States President Donald Trump – can end the complex and long-running conflict, while the militia itself has yet to commit to laying down its weapons.

Trump was upbeat about the prospects for peace when teams from Rwanda and the DRC initialed a draft agreement on June 18, while at the same time suggesting that he would not get credit for his role in ending this or other conflicts.

On June 20, he wrote on Truth Social: “This is a Great Day for Africa and, quite frankly, a Great Day for the World! I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize for this.”

He added: “I won’t get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do, including Russia/Ukraine, and Israel/Iran, whatever those outcomes may be, but the people know, and that’s all that matters to me!”

Trump touts himself as a “peacemaker” and has expanded his interest in global conflicts to the brutal war in the mineral-rich eastern DRC. His peace deal could also pave the way for America’s economic interests in the region, as it eyes access to the DRC’s critical minerals.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will preside over the signing of the peace agreement by DRC Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner and her Rwandan counterpart Olivier Nduhungirehe on Friday.

More than 7,000 people have been killed, and some one million others displaced since January, when the M23 militia waged a fresh offensive against the Congolese army, seizing control of the two largest cities in the country’s east.

There has been increasing reports of summary executions – even of children – in occupied areas, where aid groups say they are also witnessing an epidemic of rape and sexual violence.

A complex war

The crisis in the eastern DRC, which shares a border with Rwanda and harbors large deposits of minerals critical to the production of electronics, is a fusion of complex issues.

In that genocide, hundreds of thousands of Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed by Hutu militias.

Rwanda criticizes the DRC, which faces problems with militia violence, for integrating a proscribed Hutu militia group into its army to fight against the mainly Tutsi M23.

M23, which first emerged in 2012, is one of the most prominent militias battling for control of the DRC’s mineral wealth. The rebel group also claims to defend the interests of the Tutsis and other Congolese minorities of Rwandan origin.

UN experts and much of the international community believe that Rwanda backs M23 and supports the rebels with troops, leaving the nation on the cusp of war with the DRC over this alleged territorial violation.

The Rwandan government has not acknowledged this claim but insists it protects itself against the Hutu militia operating in the DRC, which it describes as an “existential security threat to Rwanda.”

M23 occupies strategic mining towns in the DRC’s eastern provinces of North and South Kivu.

In a report in December, the UN Group of Experts on the DRC said they found evidence that minerals “were fraudulently exported to Rwanda” from the DRC “and mixed with Rwandan production.”

Rwandan President Paul Kagame drew outrage last year when he admitted in a public address that Rwanda was a transit point for minerals smuggled from the DRC but insisted his country was not stealing from its neighbor.

What’s contained in the US peace deal?

Washington’s peace accord contains provisions on “respect for territorial integrity and a prohibition of hostilities,” including “disengagement, disarmament, and conditional integration of non-state armed groups,” according to a joint statement issued by the US, Rwanda and the DRC on June 18.

Other points include “facilitation of the return of refugees and internally displaced persons, as well as humanitarian access” and the establishment of a “regional economic integration framework” that could attract significant US investments into Rwanda and the DRC.

Asked whether AFC would surrender its arms, Victor Tesongo, a spokesperson for the coalition, said it was “not there yet” and that it was waiting on developments in Doha. He did not confirm whether airports in the eastern DRC that had been shut by the rebels would reopen for aid supply.

Why US efforts may fail

Previous truce agreements have failed to bring lasting peace between M23 and the Congolese armed forces.

In April, the rebels jointly declared a truce after meeting with representatives of the DRC during negotiations led by Qatar. Fighting flared up days after.

Qatar has been facilitating talks after Angolan President João Lourenço quit his mediation role following months of inability to broker peace.

One of those root causes, he said, was the “unfair distribution” of the DRC’s mineral wealth, which he claimed, “benefits a small elite and foreign powers, while ordinary Congolese, especially in the east, suffer displacement and misery.”

The DRC is roughly the size of western Europe and is home to more than 100 million people. The Central African nation is also endowed with the world’s largest reserves of cobalt – used to produce batteries that power cell phones and electric vehicles – and coltan, which is refined into tantalum and has a variety of applications in phones and other devices.

However, according to the World Bank, “most people in DRC have not benefited from this wealth,” and the country ranks among the five poorest nations in the world.

Kubelwa said another trigger for the conflict in the DRC was the country’s “weak institutions” and “suppression of dissent.”

A fragile peace

The DRC foreign minister’s office said it would comment on the deal after the document is signed.

Congolese human rights activist and Nobel laureate Denis Mukwege has described the deal as “vague” and tilted in Rwanda’s favor.

After details of the draft agreement were announced last week, he posted a statement on X criticizing it for failing to recognize “Rwanda’s aggression against the DRC,” which he wrote, “suggests it (the peace accord) benefits the unsanctioned aggressor, who will thus see its past and present crimes whitewashed as ‘economic cooperation.’”

He added: “In its current state, the emerging agreement would amount to granting a reward for aggression, legitimizing the plundering of Congolese natural resources, and forcing the victim to alienate their national heritage by sacrificing justice in order to ensure a precarious and fragile peace.”

For Kubelwa, “a true and lasting solution must go beyond ceasefires and formal agreements. It must include genuine accountability, regional truth-telling, redistribution of national wealth, reform of governance, and a broad national dialogue that includes all Congolese voices not just elites or foreign allies.”

“Without this, peace remains a fragile illusion,” he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed an agreement with the Council of Europe (CoE) to create a tribunal that would allow for the prosecution of senior Russian officials who have led the war on Ukraine.

Zelensky signed the accord on Wednesday alongside CoE Secretary General Alain Berset in the French city of Strasbourg, where the organization is headquartered.

The Ukrainian leader has portrayed the special tribunal as paramount to holding Russian officials responsible for the full-scale invasion of his country, which began in February 2022 and has grinded on for more than three years, with a huge human cost.

The establishment of the tribunal is aimed at widening the net for those who can be tried over the conflict. The International Criminal Court (ICC), which focuses on crimes against humanity, has already issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and several other high-profile political and military Russian figures.

The new body will deal with the crime of aggression, specifically regarding the use of armed force by one state against another. It marks the first time that the CoE has set up such a tribunal.

“The Tribunal, formally launched today, creates a real opportunity to hold the leadership of the Russian regime accountable for the crimes committed against our state and our people,” the Ukrainian president wrote on X.

“We will continue working to ensure justice for all victims. Criminals must face trial in The Hague and be punished.”

Berset said: “This historic signature reminds us that international law must apply to all – with no exceptions, and with no double standards.”

Alongside Putin, the ICC, based in The Hague, issued an arrest warrant for Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s presidential commissioner for children’s rights, in March 2023. Both are accused of the illegal deportation and transfer of children from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia.

In March 2024, the court also issued arrest warrants for Viktor Sokolov, a Russian navy officer and former commander of the Black Sea Fleet, and Sergei Kobylash, a lLieutenant general in the Russian Armed Forces. The two are accused of the war crime of causing excessive incidental harm to civilians and the crime against humanity of inhumane acts.

Meanwhile, ceasefire negotiations to end the war in Ukraine have mostly stalled despite mediation from the Trump administration.

The talks between Russia, Ukraine and third countries have struggled to make progress after Moscow refused to back off its maximalist demands and presented a ceasefire proposal that would essentially amount to Ukraine’s capitulation.

At the same time, Russia keeps ramping up its attacks against Ukrainian cities. Russian forces killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians in less than 48 hours on Monday and Tuesday, according to Ukrainian officials, two of the deadliest days in many months.

The clasped hands of French and German leaders have long embodied the spirit of European unity – most famously in 1984, when François Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl stood hand-in-hand at Verdun in a symbol of reconciliation.

So, when Chancellor Friedrich Merz grasped President Emmanuel Macron’s hand on the steps of the Élysée palace in early May – a handshake that was long, warm, and accompanied by backslapping – it wasn’t just a photo-op.

It was the clearest sign yet that Europe’s most important alliance was back in motion. After years of sputtering and frustration under Olaf Scholz, the Franco-German engine is humming again, and it has a new name: Merzcron.

Since Merz’s election, the two have met six times – most recently with other NATO leaders at The Hague. They will sit down together again on Thursday at the European Council meeting in Brussels.

Their shared agenda: to drive the European Union response on security, Ukraine and Trump-era uncertainties, and shape Europe’s role on the global stage.

Ahead of Wednesday’s NATO summit, Macron and Merz laid out their vision in a joint opinion piece in the Financial Times.

“In these testing times, Germany and France – together with our European and transatlantic friends and allies – stand united and strong, to defend our common values as well as the freedom and security of our citizens,” they wrote.

They outlined plans to boost defense spending – aiming to reach 3.5% of GDP in core military investments – and to deepen cooperation between NATO and the EU, calling for a stronger, more sovereign Europe that is no longer reliant on others for its security. They pledged to ensure Ukraine emerges “prosperous, robust and secure,” and warned that European stability for decades to come hangs in the balance.

The signs are that the powerful ‘Mercron’ or ‘Merkozy’ alliance, portmanteaus derived from the names of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Macron and his predecessor Nicholas Sarkozy, is evolving into an equally influential ‘Merzcron.’

The two-day European Council summit now underway in Brussels, hot on the heels of a G7 meeting in Canada and the NATO leaders’ summit in The Hague, is the first of Merz’s chancellorship. It will likely be another demonstration of how strong this union could be.

Leaders who ‘love interaction’

Under Scholz, the former German chancellor, the Berlin-Paris axis became strained, something that both Ischinger and Hollande noted.

Stefan Seidendorf, director at the Franco-German Institute in Ludwigsburg, Germany, said Scholz spent so much time doing “domestic homework” that he was never able to fully focus on Europe.

The three-way coalition he headed was beset with infighting on domestic and Europe issues and eventually collapsed in November last year, triggering an early election.

He added that the same went for Scholz, “who found it difficult to get along with this French president living in the palace of Élysée with all the gold and the glitter and the ceremony.”

But neither was Macron and Merz’s friendship a given, considering their different styles. Macron, 47, is Jupiterian and theatrical, hailed by some as a visionary, dismissed by others as a narcissist. Merz, 69, is impulsive, prickly under pressure and occasionally leans into populist bluster.

That said, Ischinger said both leaders “met rather easily – and got their act together.” Speaking about their shared character traits, he said they “love interaction. They enjoy difficult questions. These two have a way of understanding each other – they are open.”

‘Perfect unity’ over Ukraine

Their recent trip to Kyiv, alongside British and Polish leaders Keir Starmer and Donald Tusk, “was a symbol of a new kind of determined getting-together of the major European powers to make progress,” Ischinger said.

Paris has long been more hawkish than Berlin on its support for Ukraine. Macron has been a strong proponent of boots on the ground in the country and has allowed Ukraine to fire French-made long-range missiles deep into Russia.

However, Hollande said, “we’ve seen that Merz’s position is a bit different from that of his predecessor… including on the delivery of missiles capable of reaching Russian territory.”

Since taking office, Merz has welcomed Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to Berlin and unveiled a new $5 billion package for Ukraine that includes joint co-operation in the development of long-range missiles capable of being fired deep into Russia, some of which could be online by the end of the year.

“Now we’re in perfect unity,” Ischinger said of the Franco-German alignment on Ukraine.

Russia’s unease over a more coordinated Franco-German approach to Ukraine is already starting to show.

News of last month’s visit to Kyiv by Merz and Macron was accompanied by the release of a photo taken ahead of a meeting between them. Sitting on the table was a white tissue.

Its presence sparked an online rumor, amplified by Kremlin officials and later traced back to pro-Russian accounts, that falsely claimed the crumpled tissue – which Macron picked up and pocketed – was a cocaine bag.

The Élysée countered by saying “when European unity becomes inconvenient, disinformation goes so far as to make a simple tissue look like drugs. This fake news is being spread by France’s enemies, both abroad and at home.”

European security

US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has also forced a new alignment between the European powerhouses, particularly on the issue of Europe’s security.

The Trump administration’s insistence that Europe should do more to defend itself triggered the shift, Hollande explained, saying that it “forced France and Germany to work together diplomatically and militarily, whereas until then, their main alignment had been on monetary issues.

“Today there is a shared responsibility. Germany must do more for its defense, and France must be willing to share a number of proposals and initiatives – including on defense – with Germany,” Hollande says.

Before even formally taking office, Merz managed to push through the reform of Germany’s constitutional debt brake to unlock over half a trillion dollars in defense spending. He has also committed to creating Europe’s largest army. Both represent a major shift for Germany.

Previously, Hollande suggested, those moves might have been difficult for France to stomach.

“We used to be very reluctant about German rearmament. That was a politically sensitive issue after the war. But today, no one in France fears German rearmament –we welcome it,” he said.

Macron and Merz also appear to have taken a similar approach to dealing with Trump. Both have had effusive and positive meetings in the Oval Office with a president who has not always been so welcoming to visiting leaders.

Europe’s shifting center

Paris and Berlin are also trying to revive the decades-old “Weimar Triangle.” Established after German reunification in 1991, it aimed to bring Poland deeper into the European fold, led by Germany and France.

Ischinger feels the relative weight of the European Union has shifted eastwards due to the war in Ukraine, meaning that Warsaw, now more than ever, must now be a vital ally for Paris and Berlin. “Harmony (between France and Germany) is key, but it’s not sufficient,” he said.

“The center of gravity of the good old European Union was somewhere between France and Germany. But today, almost half of the members are to the east of Germany,” he added, and giving Poland more say is the best way to bring the continent together.

That shift, too, is already playing out. As well as taking part in the Kyiv trip, Tusk has found himself directly involved in European talks with Trump, as the US president has attempted to broker an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

Poland’s status as Europe’s fastest growing economy, its commitment to NATO defense spending – way above other member states’ at 4.2% of GDP in 2024, projected to rise to 4.7% this year – and its geographic location bordering Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, have made the nation a key nexus for the continent.

Nonetheless, for Hollande, “Europe only moves forward when France and Germany speak with one voice and pull in the same direction. Only then can the European machine function properly.”

Ischinger added: “If Franco-German cooperation works well, you have a perfect precondition to get the entire European Union underway, moving forward.”

For now, the “Merzcron” engine is firing up and, if it keeps its momentum, it could pull the rest of Europe into gear.